Sunday, June 17, 2007

I have an insatiable hunger for news pertaining to the Tennessee Titans. I read the Tennessean daily, as well as ESPN, ProFootballWeekly.com, and a number of other smaller Titans-related news sources for info.

I have yet to see anyone do a fully broken down prediction of the AFC South teams for next year (other than ESPN's Merril Hoge saying "oh, I think the Colts will win, cause Peyton Manning pwns") so here is my prediction.

(I promise, it's not biased at all! :) )

AFC SOUTH - 2007 PREDICTIONS

Tennessee Titans

Last year, Tennessee went 8-5 in games started by Vince Young (as opposed to the sack, interception, and fumble machine commonly referred to as Kerry Collins) as the Titans went 6-1 over the last seven games of the regular season, narrowly missing the playoffs.

The Titans lost RB Travis Henry in the offseason, which looms as the largest area of concern entering the 2007 season. Will LenDale White stop eating long enough to post a 4+ yards per carry? Or will unproven Chris Henry have to carry the load? Or will the Titans re-sign Chris Brown and mix all three of them together? Will any of these scenarios get the job done?

The Titans also lost WR Drew Bennett and WR Bobby Wade, the departures of which have received way too much attention. Vince Young's mobility and vision on the field created many opportunities for these decent receivers to look good. Bennett will do well in the Rams offense next year, but Bobby Wade won't do well at all in Minneapolis. These were players that Vince Young helped create, not the other way around. (And to some extent, this was also true for Travis Henry, although in Denver he will post BIG numbers next year.)

The Titans have drafted well enough in the past two years to be fine at running back - I do think Chris Henry will become the primary running back once we're into the season and will post surprisingly solid numbers for a rookie. Wide receiver will be forgotten as a concern once the season begins, as Brandon Jones averages over 100 receiving yards per game and scores 10 TD.

Defensively, the Titans have in 2007 what the Colts had in 2006 - an opportunistic defense laden with solid playmakers in the secondary but lacking in defensive line pressure. While DE Kyle Vanden Bosch will have another solid year, the lack of a productive DE on the other side of the line will mean another year of double teams every game and more risk of injury. The Titans will rely on an improved linebacker corps (with the welcome addition of Dallas LB Ryan Fowler, who was just starting to come into his own when the Titans stole him away with a restricted free agent offer sheet the Cowboys couldn't match) and the finally-consistent play of DT Albert Haynesworth to provide the additional QB pressure necessary to create turnovers and help win games.

The X-factor in the Titans season will be what happens with Pac Man Jones. Jones has already been all but exonerated in the Las Vegas shooting, leaving the Atlanta incident as the determinant now of his return to the NFL. The Atlanta case comes before a judge in September, and pending its resolution, Jones will be back on the field on Week 10 of the regular season. (Also, don't forget that Jones dropped his appeal of his suspension with the NFL commissioner, which many suspect is a tactic to improve his standing within the commissioner's office and make it easier for the commissioner to reinstate Jones once he is eligible.)

When Pac Man Jones returns, the Titans' kick return game all of a sudden returns to its 2006 level of being in the top 1 or 2 in the NFL. Jones led the NFL in kick return yards last year - NOT Pro Bowler Devin Hester. And once Jones returns, the defense will be helped out by his shutdown corner skills and the offense will be helped out by the trick plays that the team runs with Jones on the field. While he may be rusty in the first game or two, if the Titans season goes as planned, they will be significantly better entering the playoffs than they were at the start of the season.

One of the reasons Vince Young received so much positive press leading up to his Rookie of the Year award at the end of last year was that the Titans had the most difficult schedule in the NFL in 2006. This year, the schedule gets a good bit easier (with a particularly soft middle third of the season) so the Titans should be in good shape from a scheduling perspective.

This is the year that Vince Young and the Titans continue their evolution into perennial Super Bowl contenders, and because of external factors that cause the Jaguars and Colts to be mired in mediocrity, the Titans WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH IN 2007. Write it down.

Prediction: 10-6
Rank, AFC South: 1st


Houston Texans

The Texans season will be judged by a single moment during the offseason - the acquisition of former Falcons QB Matt Schaub. Schaub isn't too much better than his predecessor in Houston, David Carr, but has a completely different personality that will be capable of leading the Texans to a winner mentality in 2007.

Right behind the Schaub acquisition is the signing of RB Ahman Green away from Green Bay. Green will provide stability at the running back position, and round out a solid offensive team that also includes Pro Bowler WR Andre Johnson.

Defensively, Demeco Ryans will take another step in leading the underrated Texans defense toward becoming a playoff caliber squad. But the real story will be the improved statistics of DE Mario Williams, who was maligned much of 2006 for being drafted ahead of Reggie Bush and Vince Young.

The Texans were close in many of their losses in 2006, losing 4 of their losses by less than a touchdown. Switch those losses to wins and the Texans went 10-6 last season, not 6-10.

The Texans also benefit, like the Titans, from a softer schedule in 2007 than they had the year before. The difference between which team, the Titans or the Texans, will be in first place in this division hinges on their head-to-head record. And do you really think Vince Young will lose to his hometown Houston team? Or that Bud Adams, who lives in Houston, would allow Jeff Fisher to lose these games? Didn't happen last year and won't this year either, although the Texans will have what most will view as a hugely successful turnaround year although will barely miss the playoffs in the last week of the season.

Prediction: 8-8
Rank, AFC South: 2nd


Indianapolis Colts

The popular media is high on the Colts coming out of the AFC South as the champion of the division once again in 2007. What hasn't made a lot of news in the popular media, though, are the number of defections from the Colts roster to other teams during the offseason:

CB Jason David (signed with the New Orleans Saints)
CB Nick Harper (signed with the Tennessee Titans)
S Mike Doss (signed with the Minnesota Vikings)
LB Cato June (signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
DT Montae Reagor (unsigned as of June 17)
RB Dominic Rhodes (signed with the Oakland Raiders)
WR Brandon Stokley (unsigned as of June 17)

Note that the majority of these free agents who have left the Colts are on defense. The Colts, as a team, had 15 interceptions, 10 of which were by players listed above who are no longer on the roster. Bear in mind that the Colts defense was a bend-but-don't-break, opportunistic type of defense, that is incapable of shutting down opponents but instead looked for turnover chances...and you realize that the Colts defense may really suck this year.

Their offense will continue to click along and put up big statistics, as long as Peyton Manning is healthy.

Last year, the Colts went 3-3 within the AFC South, losing the last three divisional games. Jacksonville crushed Indy 44-17 in the second half of last year, and even Houston got in on the action in upsetting the Colts 24-21. But after the Titans barely lost to the Colts (in Indianapolis) 14-13 early in the year last year, who could forget Rob Bironas' 60-yarder to take down the division champions?

So combine the Colts worst-in-AFC defense with the AFC South's high degree of familiarity with the Colts offense, and maybe mix in a little bit of Super Bowl champion malaise / bad luck, and you get a recipe for a horrendous Colts season that sends the franchise in a completely unanticipated direction in 2008.

2007 Colts Record: 7-9
Rank, AFC South: 3rd


Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a team primed for an implosion in 2007. Characterized by strong defensive play and a fierce ground attack, the Jaguars have long been thought to be close to playoff contention and a potential Super Bowl run.

Last year, though, the seed was planted for a contentious, hostile locker room in which QB Byron Leftwich won't even speak to head coach Jack del Rio after not being allowed to resume at starting quarterback after returning from injury, as del Rio opted to continue with David Garrard at that position. Now, the Jaguars (in their infinite wisdom) are considering bringing in clubhouse cancer Daunte Culpepper, who will do absolutely nothing to improve the QB position but will do a lot to add confusion and disarray to the Jaguars team.

Both of them suck, so it doesn't make that big of a difference. Mix in a strangely inconsistent group of wide receivers, and you have the makings of a frustrating offense that is great at grinding out rushing yards behind RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, but can't do much of anything else to support offensive production.

On defense, another seed has just recently been planted for ill will in the locker room this year. The Jaguars suddenly released S Donovin Darius, their ball-hawking safety who was the leader of the defensive secondary. He was coming off an injury and was expected to begin minicamps on time, but the Jaguars opted to go younger at that position with their first round draft pick out of Florida, Reggie Nelson.

The Jaguars are a team that lives on the edge. They have long been on the edge of becoming a perennial AFC South powerhouse, but have almost stood in their own way as they tried to accomplish that. Now with these dual offseason issues (Culpepper/QB issues as well as releasing Darius) the team will teeter on the edge of implosion before completely falling apart during this brutal stretch of their 2007 season:

Week 9 - at New Orleans
Week 10 - at Tennessee
Week 11 - San Diego
Week 12 - Buffalo (which will be a very good team in 2007)
Week 13 - at Indianapolis

At best, Jacksonville will go 2-3 in these games, but since they will already be sub-.500 entering this stretch of games, they will fall further out of playoff contention and will lead to at least partial meltdown heading into the end of the season. Jack del Rio will not survive the subsequent offseason and the Jaguars will have to decide whether or not to tear the entire team apart to rebuild, or go after a pricey QB veteran to try to compete in the short term.

Prediction: 5-11
Rank, AFC South: 4th