Sunday, December 09, 2007

The Titans just threw the game in the garbage against the Chargers, allowing them to come from 14 points down in the fourth quarter to force overtime, where they then proceeded to score a game-winning touchdown with LaDainian Tomlinson.

I don't really consider this good news, but my predictions remain on target as a result of today's Titans letdown. Excerpted from my aforementioned 2007 Titans Predictions which I gave to Jeff Fisher on July 24:

Week 14 (San Diego) – LOSS: San Diego defense forces season-high 3 INT from VY

Prediction: 7-6 heading into Week 15.


Vince Young only threw 2 picks (along with 0 touchdowns) and had as many rushing yards in the game as the injured Philip Rivers (who is pretty immobile even when he's not hurt).

Seriously.

I've been spot on throughout the entire season, maybe switching up a game or two, but trending the season with complete accuracy and modeling out the Titans' overall strengths and weaknesses right on the money.

The funny thing is that the Titans could have been a 9-4 team or even a 10-3 team right now. They've got the talent.

Unfortunately, their gameplan of running LenDale White like a battering ram at the opponent, playing Schottenheimer-esque over-conservative offense, and waiting for defensive turnovers to happen, is just not the right formula for winning ballgames at this point.

Why?

1) The Titans' CBs are not physically equipped to force turnovers in the passing game. Nick Harper did have a nice pick today, but only because Rivers sucked. There's plenty of data here.

2) The Titans are resting on their laurels by making the bad assumption that just because you CAN get pressure with your front four, you shouldn't rush anyone else. You've got to change it up and be as unpredictable as reasonably possible. This is quickly becoming a critical error in the team's strategy.

3) Vince Young is either unable or unwilling to run for first downs anymore. If he can't run, and run for first downs consistently like he did down the stretch last year, he is actually worse than Kerry Collins from a predicting future performance point-of-view and should therefore not even be playing. Vince Young needs about 50 yards a game and 3-4 rushing first downs a game to open up other opportunities with his arm.

4) The Titans seem to think that allowing LenDale White to rush for 2-3 yards per carry in the first half leads to 4-6 yards per carry averages by White in the second half.

This could not be more wrong. The Titans need to be rushing Chris Brown more in the first half (or the shifty Chris Henry once he returns from suspension) and then bringing White in the second half to pound through tired defenses...not tolerating his inability to escape and break tackles throughout the first half, all the while keeping the other team in the ballgame.

5) In a similar line of reasoning to why you keep your offense and defense as unpredictable as you can, so you don't put yourself at unnecessary risk, you also don't do the same thing on special teams. A special teams fake at some point in the middle of a ballgame would be advisable. We haven't tried one all year, and it's costing us as much as 8 yards in field position every punt.

I'm done with all this. I'm tired of worrying about a team that seems more interested in falling backwards into any playoff opportunities than grabbing it by the throat.

The Titans should have contacted me by now. Since they haven't, let's hope the rest of my predictions come true. Bear in mind, like I predicted, the Colts will not have anything to gain by winning in Week 17, and will therefore be resting a number of their key starters, allowing the Titans to win that game much easier than it might have been otherwise.

4) Easy part of schedule to finish up year: @ Kansas City, NY Jets, @ Indy

Prediction: Titans win all three of these games, blowing out Chiefs away and seizing revenge against Jets for early ’06 loss and Indy for early ’07 loss at home. Finish season 10-6 and enter playoffs as #5 seed.